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Property Crime Trends in Palos Heights: Significant Overall Decline Amidst Motor Vehicle Theft Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Palos Heights, Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends from 2010 to 2022. The city experienced a substantial 54.5% reduction in total property crimes, decreasing from 220 in 2010 to 100 in 2022. This decline occurred despite a slight population decrease of 5.8%, from 13,821 in 2010 to 13,021 in 2022.
Burglary rates in Palos Heights showed a notable decline over the years. The number of burglaries dropped from 9 in 2010 to 7 in 2022. When adjusted for population, this represents a decrease from 0.65 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.54 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, suggesting that while burglaries decreased locally, they did not decrease as rapidly at the state level.
Larceny theft trends demonstrated a more dramatic decrease. The number of larceny thefts plummeted from 210 in 2010 to 78 in 2022. This represents a significant drop from 15.2 thefts per 1,000 people in 2010 to 6 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts decreased from 0.12% to 0.08% over this period, indicating that the reduction in larceny theft outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft, however, showed an increase over time. From just 1 case in 2010, it rose to 15 in 2022. This translates to an increase from 0.07 thefts per 1,000 people to 1.15 per 1,000. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0% to 0.05%, suggesting a local trend that diverged from state patterns.
Arson cases remained relatively stable and low throughout the period. There was 1 case in 2010 and 1 case in 2022, with some years reporting no arsons. The per capita rate remained virtually unchanged at about 0.07 cases per 1,000 people. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated but ended at 0.15% in 2022, up from 0.1% in 2010.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $85,909 in 2013 to $98,148 in 2022, overall property crime decreased. Additionally, the city maintained a high percentage of owner-occupied housing, consistently above 94%, which may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise slightly, bucking the general downward trend. Larceny theft is expected to stabilize at current lower levels, while burglary rates may continue their gradual decline.
In conclusion, Palos Heights has demonstrated a significant improvement in overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in larceny theft. The increase in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for focused attention. The city's high median income and stable owner-occupancy rates appear to correlate with lower crime rates, suggesting that maintaining these socioeconomic factors could be key to sustaining the positive trends in property crime reduction.
