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Property Crime Trends in Spring Valley, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Spring Valley, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. With a population of 5,689 in 2022, the city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 46.67%, from 105 to 56 incidents, while the population saw a slight increase of 1.35% during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2011, there were 21 burglaries, which decreased to 9 in 2022, representing a 57.14% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.74 in 2011 to 1.58 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.04% to 0.05% over the same period. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the decrease has been less pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. The number of incidents dropped from 83 in 2011 to 44 in 2022, a 46.99% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 14.79 to 7.73 over this period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents decreased slightly from 0.05% to 0.04%, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft was roughly in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been volatile. In 2011, there was 1 incident, dropping to 0 in some years, and rising to 3 in 2022. This represents a 200% increase from 2011 to 2022, though the small numbers make percentage changes less meaningful. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.18 in 2011 to 0.53 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% to 0.01%, suggesting a slight uptick relative to state trends.
Arson incidents have been rare, with only two reported cases in 2012 and one in 2014. Since 2015, there have been no reported arson cases. This positive trend has reduced the city's contribution to state arson incidents from 0.19% in 2012 to 0% in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $50,535 in 2013 to $53,033 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the decreasing percentage of owner-occupied housing (from 75% in 2013 to 67% in 2022) and the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglary and larceny-theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now), we can anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are likely to continue their downward trends, potentially reaching rates of around 1.2 and 6.5 per 1,000 residents, respectively. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or slightly increase, but is expected to remain below 1 incident per 1,000 residents. Arson incidents are predicted to remain rare or non-existent.
In summary, Spring Valley has shown encouraging trends in property crime reduction over the past decade. The significant decreases in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the rarity of arson incidents, indicate improving safety conditions. However, the slight uptick in motor vehicle thefts warrants attention. These trends, when considered alongside demographic changes such as rising median income and shifting housing occupancy patterns, suggest a complex interplay of socioeconomic factors influencing crime rates in the city.
