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Property Crime Trends in Old Monroe, Missouri: A Decade of Low Incidents Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Old Monroe, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. With a population that has fluctuated between 1,105 and 1,490 residents from 2010 to 2022, this small city has experienced varying levels of property crime over the years. The total number of property crimes ranged from 0 to 3 incidents annually, with no consistent trend observed. Despite these fluctuations, the population has grown by approximately 17.5% from 2010 to 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have been sporadic and low. Only two years, 2016 and 2019, reported burglary incidents, with one case each. This translates to a rate of 0.90 and 0.67 burglaries per 1,000 residents in those respective years. The percentage of state burglaries attributable to Old Monroe was negligible, reaching 0.01% only in 2019. These figures suggest that burglary is not a persistent issue in the community, with most years reporting zero incidents.
Larceny-theft showed a similar pattern to burglary. The city reported two incidents in 2016 and one in 2019 and 2020. This translates to rates of 1.81, 0.67, and 1.43 thefts per 1,000 residents in those years, respectively. The percentage of state larceny-thefts occurring in Old Monroe was consistently reported as 0%, indicating that these incidents had a minimal impact on statewide statistics. The low and inconsistent nature of these crimes suggests that larceny-theft is not a major concern for the city.
Motor vehicle theft in Old Monroe was even rarer, with only one reported incident in 2011. This single case represented 0.01% of the state's motor vehicle thefts for that year. With a rate of 0.79 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2011, and no reported incidents in subsequent years, motor vehicle theft appears to be an infrequent occurrence in the community.
Arson cases were reported only in 2012, with two incidents. This resulted in a rate of 1.77 arsons per 1,000 residents and represented 0.2% of the state's arson cases for that year. The absence of arson reports in other years suggests this was an isolated event rather than a recurring problem.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors, no strong relationships are apparent due to the low and inconsistent nature of crime incidents. The sporadic occurrence of property crimes does not align consistently with changes in population density, median income, or racial distribution.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the inconsistent nature of the data. However, based on the historical pattern, it's reasonable to expect that property crime incidents will remain low, likely ranging between 0 to 3 cases per year. The city may experience occasional spikes in specific crime categories, but these are likely to be isolated events rather than indicative of a broader trend.
In summary, Old Monroe has maintained relatively low property crime rates despite population growth. The sporadic nature of reported incidents suggests that property crime is not a persistent issue in the community. While occasional incidents occur, they do not appear to follow any discernible pattern or correlation with demographic changes. As the city continues to grow, maintaining vigilance and community-oriented policing strategies could help ensure that property crime rates remain low in the coming years.
