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Property Crime Trends in Oakley, Kansas: A Small City's Volatile Journey
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Oakley, located in Kansas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2016, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 17 in 2010, peaking at 39 in 2011, and settling at 20 in 2016. This represents an overall increase of 17.6% in property crimes during this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 2,098 in 2010 to 2,158 in 2016, a 2.9% increase, suggesting that property crime growth outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries, which spiked to 14 in 2011, representing a 366.7% increase. However, by 2016, burglaries had decreased to 5, still a 66.7% increase from 2010. The burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.43 in 2010 to 2.32 in 2016. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2016, indicating a growing contribution to statewide burglary statistics despite its small size.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed less dramatic fluctuations. Starting at 14 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 23 in 2011, before settling at 15 in 2016, a 7.1% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 6.67 in 2010 to 6.95 in 2016. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.03% to 0.04%, suggesting a relatively stable trend in relation to state figures.
Motor vehicle theft data shows sporadic occurrences. There were no reported incidents in 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2016. However, 2011 and 2014 each saw 2 incidents. This inconsistency makes it challenging to establish a clear trend, but it suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a persistent problem in the city.
Arson incidents were rare but showed a concerning spike. From no reported cases in 2010 and 2013-2014, there was a dramatic increase to 6 incidents in 2011, representing 1.24% of state arsons. This dropped to 1 incident each in 2015 and 2016, accounting for 0.25% and 0.34% of state arsons respectively. These figures, while small, represent a significant increase in the city's contribution to state arson statistics.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 1,091 per square mile in 2010 to 1,122 in 2016, property crimes also showed an overall increase. However, the relationship is not consistently linear, suggesting other factors are at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect a continuation of the volatile but generally increasing trend. Burglaries may stabilize around 4-6 incidents annually, while larceny-theft could see a slight increase to 16-18 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain sporadic, with 0-2 incidents annually. Arson incidents, given their rarity and volatility, are difficult to predict but may occur once every 2-3 years.
In summary, Oakley has experienced a complex property crime landscape from 2010 to 2016. While overall property crime increased at a rate faster than population growth, individual categories showed varying trends. Burglary and larceny-theft saw overall increases, while motor vehicle theft remained sporadic. The spike in arson incidents, though brief, significantly impacted the city's contribution to state statistics. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population and density, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies to address the most prevalent and increasing forms of property crime in Oakley.
