Motor vehicle theft in the city showed more volatility. From 10 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 17 in 2014 before declining to 5 in 2022, a 50% decrease overall. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 2.67 in 2010 to 1.53 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.19% in 2010 to a peak of 0.5% in 2014, before decreasing to 0.1% in 2022, suggesting periods of both concern and improvement relative to state trends.

Arson cases in the city were infrequent but showed significant variation. From 2 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 7 in 2018 before dropping to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.53 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arsons fluctuated dramatically, reaching a high of 2.31% in 2018 before falling to 0% in 2022, indicating periods of heightened concern followed by significant improvement.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $40,712 in 2013 to $42,111 in 2021, overall property crime decreased from 119 to 48 incidents. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the decline in property crime and the decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied housing, which fell from 78% in 2013 to 65% in 2022. This suggests that despite lower homeownership, the community experienced improved safety.

Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Galena could see a further reduction in property crimes. The model suggests total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 25-30 incidents annually, with burglaries potentially dropping to 2-3 cases, larceny thefts to 20-25 cases, and motor vehicle thefts to 2-3 cases per year. Arson cases are expected to remain very low or at zero.

In summary, Galena has demonstrated a significant overall improvement in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, outpacing its population decline. The most notable reductions were seen in burglary and larceny theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson showed more variability but ultimately decreased. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest a positive trajectory for community safety despite challenges in homeownership. If current trends continue, the city is poised for further reductions in property crime rates, potentially enhancing its appeal and safety for residents in the coming years.