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Property Crime Trends in Oakbrook Terrace: Population Growth and Urban Density Impacts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Oakbrook Terrace, a small city in Illinois spanning just 1.31 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates alongside significant population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes decreased by 9.92%, from 121 to 109 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 8.34%, from 4,005 to 4,339 residents. This analysis will delve into the specific trends of various property crime categories and their relationship to demographic changes in the city.
Burglary rates in the city have shown an overall declining trend. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries reported, which increased to a peak of 28 in 2011, but then gradually decreased to 9 by 2019. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.00 in 2010 to 2.07 in 2019, with significant fluctuations in between. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2019, indicating that while local rates decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed more variability. The number of incidents decreased from 111 in 2010 to 96 in 2019, a 13.51% reduction. When accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 27.72 in 2010 to 22.13 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.07% throughout the decade, suggesting that local trends mirrored those at the state level.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. The number of incidents increased from 2 in 2010 to 4 in 2019, representing a 100% increase. However, due to the small numbers involved, this translates to a change from 0.50 to 0.92 incidents per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% to 0.03% over this period, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the state average.
Arson incidents were extremely rare in the city, with no reported cases from 2010 to 2019. However, in 2020, one arson case was reported, representing 0.08% of the state's total. This single incident is not enough to establish a trend but warrants monitoring in future years.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 3,060 per square mile in 2010 to 3,316 in 2019, overall property crime rates showed a general decline. This suggests that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, the rise in median income from $73,927 in 2013 to $76,809 in 2019 coincided with a period of relatively stable property crime rates, indicating a potential positive correlation between economic well-being and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, we can forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029). Assuming current demographic and economic trends continue, we might expect to see a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates, potentially reaching around 80-90 incidents per year by 2029. Burglary rates are likely to stabilize at around 5-7 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the predominant property crime, but with a potential further decrease to around 70-80 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft rates may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain under 10 incidents annually. Arson incidents are expected to remain rare, with potentially 0-1 cases per year.
In conclusion, Oakbrook Terrace has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime rates over the past decade, with most categories showing declines despite population growth. The city's small size and increasing affluence appear to contribute to its relatively low crime rates. However, ongoing monitoring and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial to maintaining and improving upon these trends in the coming years.
