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Berwyn, Illinois: Significant Decline in Violent Crime Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Berwyn, Illinois, a densely populated suburb of Chicago, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city decreased by 64.9%, from 205 incidents to 72. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 55,584 to 56,556, representing a 1.75% increase.
The murder rate in Berwyn has fluctuated over the years, with no clear long-term trend. In 2010, there was 1 murder, which equated to 0.018 murders per 1,000 residents. The city experienced zero murders in 2011, 2014, and 2022, while peaking at 2 murders in 2013, 2016, and 2019. The percentage of state murders attributed to Berwyn ranged from 0% to 0.34%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2013. These fluctuations suggest that while murders are relatively rare in the city, they can have a significant impact on the overall crime statistics when they do occur.
Rape incidents in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 15 reported rapes (0.27 per 1,000 residents), which increased to 54 in 2018 (0.96 per 1,000 residents), before decreasing to just 2 cases in 2022 (0.035 per 1,000 residents). This represents an 86.7% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases fluctuated, peaking at 1.22% in 2018 and dropping to 0.06% in 2022. The dramatic reduction in reported rapes by 2022 could indicate improved safety measures or changes in reporting practices.
Robbery trends show a consistent decline over the observed period. In 2010, there were 74 robberies (1.33 per 1,000 residents), which decreased to 23 in 2022 (0.41 per 1,000 residents), marking a 68.9% reduction. The city's share of state robberies remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.21% and 0.45%, suggesting that the decrease in robberies aligns with statewide trends.
Aggravated assault cases have also decreased overall, though with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 115 cases (2.07 per 1,000 residents), which dropped to 47 cases in 2022 (0.83 per 1,000 residents), a 59.1% decrease. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases varied between 0.16% and 0.48%, with the highest percentage in 2013 and the lowest in 2019.
Examining correlations reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in violent crimes coincides with an increase in population density, which rose from 14,236 people per square mile in 2010 to 14,484 in 2022. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the changing racial demographics and crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 60% in 2013 to 61% in 2022, and the white population decreased from 31% to 26% over the same period, violent crime rates generally declined.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in violent crimes. Based on the current trajectory, we might expect to see total violent crimes potentially dropping below 50 incidents per year by 2029. However, this prediction assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively constant.
In summary, Berwyn has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, with notable decreases across all categories, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to have a positive correlation with declining crime rates. While fluctuations in certain crime categories, such as murder and rape, highlight the need for ongoing vigilance, the overall trend suggests that Berwyn is becoming a safer community. These improvements in public safety, coupled with the city's growing population, indicate a positive trajectory for Berwyn's future development and quality of life.
