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Property Crime Trends in New York Mills: A Small Minnesota City's Fluctuating Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
New York Mills, a small city in Minnesota, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside a declining population over recent years. From 2018 to 2021, the total number of property crimes increased from 1 to 3, representing a 200% increase, while the population decreased from 2,033 to 1,952, a 4% decline.
Burglary trends in the city show inconsistency. In 2018 and 2019, there was one burglary reported each year, representing 0.01% of the state's total burglaries. However, in 2020 and 2021, no burglaries were reported. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.49 in 2018 to 0 in 2021. This reduction in burglaries, despite the overall increase in property crimes, suggests a shift in criminal activity within the city.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown variability. From zero reported cases in 2018, the number rose to 3 in 2019 and 5 in 2020, before dropping to 2 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2018 to 1.02 in 2021. The percentage of state larceny-theft remained low, peaking at 0.01% in 2020. This fluctuation indicates an inconsistent pattern of petty theft in the community, with a recent downward trend.
Motor vehicle theft has emerged as a concern in recent years. From no reported cases in 2018, it increased to 3 cases in both 2019 and 2020, before decreasing to 1 case in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0 in 2018 to 0.51 in 2021. Notably, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft percentages increased from 0% in 2018 to 0.03% in 2019 and 2020, before dropping to 0.01% in 2021. This trend suggests a brief but significant spike in auto thefts relative to the city's size.
Arson incidents have remained consistently at zero from 2018 to 2021, indicating that this particular crime has not been a significant issue for the city during this period.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,399 per square mile in 2018 to 1,343 in 2021, property crimes increased. Additionally, there's a possible correlation between rising median income and property crime rates. The median income increased from $50,173 in 2018 to $54,014 in 2021, coinciding with the overall increase in property crimes. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other factors may be influencing these trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we might expect to see a continuation of the recent downward trend in overall property crimes. Based on the data from 2018 to 2021, the model suggests that property crimes could stabilize around 2-3 incidents per year, with potential fluctuations. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously due to the limited data points and the city's small size, which can lead to significant percentage changes from small numerical variations.
In summary, New York Mills has experienced a complex property crime landscape from 2018 to 2021. While burglaries have decreased, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have shown more volatility. The inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates, along with the potential influence of rising median incomes, presents an intriguing dynamic for this small Minnesota city. As the community continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring of these trends will be crucial for maintaining public safety and understanding the changing nature of property crimes in New York Mills.
