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Property Crime Trends in New Castle, Pennsylvania: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
New Castle, located in Pennsylvania, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased by 48.7%, from 1,162 to 596 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population decline of 6% during the same period, from 24,495 to 23,040 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decrease over time. In 2010, there were 491 burglaries, which dropped to 179 by 2018, representing a 63.5% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 20.0 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 7.8 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 1.29% and 2.0% of the state total. This suggests that while the city made progress in reducing burglaries, similar trends may have occurred statewide.
Larceny-theft incidents also declined, though less dramatically than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts decreased from 612 in 2010 to 387 in 2018, a 36.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 25.0 in 2010 to 16.8 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased slightly from 0.79% in 2010 to 0.60% in 2018, indicating that the city's improvements in this category may have outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed fluctuations but an overall downward trend. In 2010, there were 59 incidents, which decreased to 30 by 2018, a 49.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 2.4 in 2010 to 1.3 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.55% to 0.35% over this period, suggesting that the city made more significant progress in this area compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city showed considerable volatility. There were 27 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 17 in 2018, a 37% reduction. However, there were significant fluctuations in between, with a low of 6 cases in 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 1.1 in 2010 to 0.7 in 2018. Notably, the city's contribution to state arson figures varied widely, from a high of 4.46% in 2010 to a low of 0.75% in 2016, ending at 2.05% in 2018. This volatility suggests that arson may be influenced by specific local factors or incidents rather than following broader trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $36,639 in 2013 to $40,181 in 2018, total property crimes decreased from 1,048 to 596. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in New Castle could potentially decrease by another 20-25% from 2018 levels, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue. This would bring the total number of property crimes to approximately 450-475 incidents annually.
In summary, New Castle has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories between 2010 and 2018. The most notable improvements were in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates. The correlation between rising median income and declining crime rates suggests that continued economic development could further enhance public safety. While challenges remain, particularly with the volatility of arson incidents, the overall trend indicates a safer community with property crime rates significantly below their 2010 levels.
