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Violent Crime Trends in Coatesville: A Tale of Demographic Shifts and Safety Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Coatesville, located in Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2017, the city experienced a significant decrease in total violent crimes, dropping from 140 incidents in 2010 to 75 in 2017, representing a 46.4% reduction. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 12,775 to 13,171, an increase of 3.1%.
The murder rate in the city has shown considerable fluctuation over the years. In 2010, there were 3 murders, representing 0.6% of the state's total. This figure peaked in 2016 with 8 murders, accounting for 1.79% of Pennsylvania's murders that year. However, by 2017, it had decreased to 1 murder, or 0.19% of the state's total. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.23 in 2010 to a high of 0.61 in 2016, before dropping to 0.08 in 2017. This volatility suggests that while murder remains a concern, it is not consistently high relative to the population.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a declining trend. From 7 cases (0.42% of state total) in 2010, the number dropped to 2 cases (0.11% of state total) in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.55 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2017. This downward trend indicates improving safety for residents in terms of sexual violence, though continued vigilance is necessary.
Robbery has seen a substantial decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 60 robberies (0.46% of state total), which declined to 24 (0.27% of state total) by 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.70 in 2010 to 1.82 in 2017. This significant reduction suggests improved economic conditions or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting property crimes.
Aggravated assault cases have also decreased, though less dramatically. From 70 incidents (0.47% of state total) in 2010, the number dropped to 48 (0.37% of state total) in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.48 in 2010 to 3.64 in 2017. While still a concern, the downward trend in aggravated assaults is a positive sign for community safety.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 7,063 per square mile in 2010 to 7,282 in 2017, the total violent crime incidents decreased. This suggests that the growing population may have contributed to increased community vigilance or improved urban planning that discourages crime.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Coatesville may see its violent crime rate continue to decrease, potentially reaching around 50-60 incidents per year if current trends persist. However, this prediction assumes stable socioeconomic conditions and continued effective law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Coatesville has made significant strides in reducing violent crime across all categories from 2010 to 2017, despite a growing population. The most notable improvements were seen in robbery and aggravated assault rates. While murder rates showed volatility, the overall trend is positive. These findings suggest that the city's approach to crime prevention and community safety has been largely effective, positioning Coatesville for a potentially safer future if these trends continue.
