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Property Crime Trends in Neosho, Missouri: A Decade of Change and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Neosho, Missouri, a city of 20,542 residents as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 35.6%, from 551 to 355 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 9.6%, from 18,749 to 20,542 residents, indicating a divergence between population growth and property crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 64 burglaries reported, which peaked at 101 in 2015 before dropping to 48 in 2022, representing a 25% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.41 in 2010 to 2.34 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decline in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.2% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. In 2010, there were 468 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 271 in 2022, a 42.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 24.96 in 2010 to 13.19 in 2022. However, similar to burglary, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents actually decreased slightly from 0.41% in 2010 to 0.35% in 2022, indicating a more pronounced decrease in larceny-theft compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. There were 19 incidents in 2010, which peaked at 49 in 2016 before declining to 36 in 2022, representing an overall increase of 89.5%. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.01 in 2010 to 1.75 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2022, suggesting a slightly higher growth rate compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city have shown a concerning upward trend. From no reported cases in 2010, arson incidents increased to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0 to 0.29. More alarmingly, the city's share of state arson cases dramatically increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.98% in 2022, indicating a significant rise in arson incidents relative to the rest of the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $44,006 in 2013 to $48,010 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between the decrease in home ownership rates (from 69% in 2013 to 61% in 2022) and the fluctuation in property crime rates, particularly burglary and larceny-theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Motor vehicle theft may plateau or show a slight increase. The most concerning prediction is for arson, which is projected to continue its upward trend unless significant interventions are implemented.
In summary, Neosho has experienced a general decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite population growth. However, the rise in motor vehicle theft and especially arson cases presents new challenges for law enforcement and community safety initiatives. The correlation between economic factors and crime rates underscores the importance of addressing socioeconomic issues as part of a comprehensive crime prevention strategy.
