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Property Crime Trends in Richland, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Richland, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 87 incidents in 2011 and reaching a low of 23 in 2022, representing a 73.6% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 4,100 in 2010 to 4,953 in 2022, a 20.8% increase, suggesting a divergence between population growth and property crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 14 burglaries, which peaked at 24 in 2016 before dropping to just 1 in 2022, marking a 92.9% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 3.41 in 2010 to 0.20 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.11% in 2016 and 2018, before dropping to 0.01% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or law enforcement strategies in the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. From a high of 74 incidents in 2011, it decreased to 17 in 2022, a 77% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 10.24 in 2010 to 3.43 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively low, peaking at 0.07% in 2011 and falling to 0.02% by 2022. This decline in larceny-theft rates indicates a potential improvement in community vigilance or effectiveness of crime prevention programs.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more variable. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 6 over the years, with 5 reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.24 in 2010 to 1.01 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low but increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This slight uptick in motor vehicle thefts, contrary to other property crime trends, may warrant focused attention from local law enforcement.
Arson incidents were sporadic and infrequent, with no more than two cases reported in any given year. The highest number (2) occurred in 2013 and 2020, representing 0.26% of state arsons in those years. Given the rarity of these incidents, no clear trend can be established, but their infrequency suggests they are not a persistent problem in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and homeownership percentages. As the percent of owner-occupied housing increased from 63% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. This suggests that higher homeownership rates may contribute to community stability and reduced property crime.
Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the racial composition and property crime trends. As the white population percentage increased from 86% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, property crime rates decreased. However, this correlation should be interpreted cautiously and in the context of other socioeconomic factors.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Richland will likely continue to decrease, potentially reaching a new low of around 15-20 incidents per year. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to remain at low levels, while motor vehicle theft may require continued vigilance.
In summary, Richland has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most substantial decreases were observed in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft showed a slight increase. These trends, coupled with rising homeownership rates and demographic shifts, paint a picture of a community that has made strides in improving public safety. As Richland continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for sustained community well-being and safety.
