Motor vehicle theft has shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 156 incidents reported, which increased to 362 in 2022, a 132% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.4 in 2010 to 2.2 in 2022, a 57% increase when adjusted for population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 1.47% to 2.04% over this period. This trend suggests a growing challenge in vehicle security or an increase in organized theft rings targeting the area.

Arson incidents have fluctuated over the years but show a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 15 arsons reported, compared to 6 in 2022, a 60% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.14 to 0.04, a 71% reduction when adjusted for population. The city's share of state arsons decreased from 1.98% to 1.12%, indicating improvement relative to the state average. This reduction may reflect improved fire safety measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,706 per square mile in 2010 to 2,537 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income rose from $52,498 in 2013 to $70,160 in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes, with the exception of motor vehicle thefts. Burglaries are projected to continue their sharp decline, potentially reaching fewer than 200 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize around 2,500 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts, however, may continue to rise, potentially exceeding 400 incidents annually if current trends persist. Arson incidents are likely to remain low, fluctuating between 5-10 cases per year.

In conclusion, Murfreesboro has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite rapid population growth. The city's improving economic indicators, such as rising median income, appear to correlate with these positive trends. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. As Murfreesboro continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring the safety and security of its residents.