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Property Crime Trends in Millington, Tennessee: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Millington, located in Tennessee, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population changes. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes varied, starting at 462 in 2010, peaking at 612 in 2015, and settling at 429 in 2022, representing a 7.14% decrease over this period. Meanwhile, the population saw a slight decrease of 4.91%, from 16,544 in 2010 to 15,732 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 95 burglaries, which decreased to 96 by 2022, representing a 1.05% increase overall but with significant variations in between. The burglary rate per 1,000 people actually increased slightly from 5.74 in 2010 to 6.10 in 2022, despite the population decrease. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.72% in 2022, indicating a growing proportion of state burglaries occurring in this area.
Larceny-theft trends show a decrease over time, from 343 incidents in 2010 to 295 in 2022, a 13.99% reduction. However, when accounting for population changes, the rate per 1,000 people decreased only slightly from 20.73 to 18.75. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.29% to 0.39% during this period, suggesting a relatively stable share of state incidents despite local decreases.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an upward trend, increasing from 24 incidents in 2010 to 38 in 2022, a significant 58.33% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.45 to 2.42. More strikingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.23% to 0.21%, indicating that while local rates increased, they did not keep pace with state-wide increases.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent. From 0 cases in 2010, it peaked at 11 cases in 2014, and returned to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, peaking at 0.64 in 2014. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 1.51% in 2014 before dropping to 0% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income decreased from $54,536 in 2013 to $53,261 in 2022, property crime rates showed an overall increase, despite year-to-year fluctuations. Additionally, there's a weak positive correlation between the percentage of Black residents (increasing from 24% in 2013 to 28% in 2022) and property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect a slight downward trend in overall property crimes, with burglaries and larceny-theft likely to continue their gradual decline. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to increase if current trends persist. Arson cases are expected to remain low but unpredictable due to their sporadic nature.
In summary, Millington has seen a complex evolution of property crime over the past decade. While overall property crime and certain categories like larceny-theft have decreased, others such as motor vehicle theft have increased. The city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics has grown in some areas, particularly burglary, suggesting a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. The relationship between declining median income and increasing crime rates highlights the potential impact of economic factors on public safety in the area.
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