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Property Crime Trends in McIntosh, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
McIntosh, Alabama presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 35 incidents in 2017 and a low of 16 in 2010. By 2022, property crimes stood at 20, representing a 25% increase from 2010. Interestingly, this occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the town's population decreasing from 1,933 in 2010 to 1,471 in 2022, a 23.9% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a variable trend. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries, which remained constant in 2011 but increased to 7 in 2013-2015. By 2022, the number returned to 6. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents actually increased from 2.59 in 2010 to 4.08 in 2022, despite the fluctuations in absolute numbers. This suggests that while the raw number of burglaries remained relatively stable, the risk per capita increased due to the shrinking population. The city's share of state burglaries also grew from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents showed more volatility. From 9 cases in 2010, it peaked at 28 in 2017 before settling at 14 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 4.66 in 2010 to 9.52 in 2022, more than doubling despite the population decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases tripled from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, suggesting a localized increase in this type of crime relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends were particularly striking. From 2 incidents in 2010, it reached a high of 8 in 2021 before dropping to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 6.14 in 2021, a significant increase from 1.03 in 2010. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated dramatically, from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2021, before dropping to 0% in 2022. This volatility may indicate specific local factors influencing these crimes.
Arson data was largely unavailable until 2022, when 1 incident was reported, representing 0.19% of state arsons. With only one data point, it's challenging to discern any meaningful trends for this crime category.
Examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship appears between property crime rates and median income. As median income declined from $54,944 in 2017 to $46,693 in 2022, property crime rates per capita increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the rise in property crime rates and the increase in the Black population percentage, which grew from 44% in 2013 to 81% in 2022. However, it's crucial to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these trends may be influenced by various socioeconomic factors not captured in the available data.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates may continue to increase if current economic and demographic trends persist. The total number of property crimes could potentially reach 30-35 annually, with larceny-theft likely remaining the predominant category.
In summary, McIntosh has experienced a complex evolution in property crime patterns against a backdrop of significant demographic changes. The increase in per capita crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the town's growing share of state crime figures, suggests a need for targeted interventions. These trends, when considered alongside the declining population and shifting racial composition, paint a picture of a community in transition, facing unique challenges in maintaining public safety and economic stability.
