Motor vehicle theft trends in Massillon showed more volatility. The number of incidents increased from 22 in 2010 to 32 in 2021, a 45.5% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.51 in 2010 to 0.74 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.13% to 0.20%, suggesting a faster growth rate compared to the state average.

Arson cases in Massillon fluctuated but showed an overall decrease from 6 incidents in 2010 to 3 in 2021, a 50% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.14 to 0.07. However, the city's proportion of state arson cases increased from 0.22% to 0.39%, indicating that arson may have decreased more rapidly at the state level.

Analysis of correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. A moderate inverse correlation appears to exist between median income and property crime rates. As the median income in Massillon rose from $44,449 in 2013 to $57,444 in 2021, overall property crime incidents decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime.

Another notable correlation is between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and property crime rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing slightly decreased from 68% in 2013 to 65% in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in some property crimes, particularly motor vehicle theft. This could indicate that a higher rate of transient population or rental properties might be associated with certain types of property crime.

Predictive models forecasting property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggest a continued overall decline in property crimes, with some variations. Burglaries are predicted to continue decreasing, potentially reaching around 70-80 incidents per year by 2029. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize or show a slight decrease, possibly settling around 450-500 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to fluctuate but with a slight upward trend, potentially reaching 45-50 incidents per year. Arson cases are likely to remain low, with predictions of 2-4 incidents per year.

In conclusion, Massillon has shown a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. The relationship between rising median incomes and declining property crime rates suggests that economic factors play a role in crime reduction. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's increasing share of state crime in some categories indicate areas that may require focused attention. As Massillon moves forward, maintaining economic growth and addressing specific crime categories could be key to continuing the overall positive trend in property crime reduction.