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Property Crime Trends in Vermilion, Ohio: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Vermilion, located in Ohio, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly by 66.2%, from 269 to 91 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a slight population decrease of 0.25%, from 12,188 in 2010 to 12,157 in 2019.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2010, there were 73 burglaries, which dropped to just 15 in 2019, representing a 79.5% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.99 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.23 per 1,000 in 2019. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.19% in 2012 before settling at 0.05% in 2019. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a considerable decrease over the observed period. In 2010, there were 185 larceny-thefts, which reduced to 75 by 2019, marking a 59.5% decline. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 15.18 in 2010 to 6.17 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2019. This downward trend in larceny-theft aligns with the overall reduction in property crimes and may indicate improved community vigilance or successful crime prevention programs.
Motor vehicle theft in the city saw a substantial decrease, from 11 incidents in 2010 to just 1 in 2019, representing a 90.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.90 in 2010 to 0.08 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.07% to 0.01% over this period. This significant drop in motor vehicle thefts could be attributed to improved vehicle security technologies or more effective policing strategies targeting this specific crime.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and relatively low throughout the observed period. In 2010, there were 3 arson incidents, representing 0.11% of state arsons. However, by 2019, no arson cases were reported. The inconsistent nature of arson incidents makes it challenging to establish a clear trend, but the overall low numbers suggest it is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $59,190 in 2013 to $65,439 in 2019, there was a corresponding decrease in property crimes. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 71% in 2013 to 75% in 2019, which coincided with the decline in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher home ownership rates contribute to community stability and reduced crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, representing five years from now) suggests a continued downward trajectory. Based on the historical data, we can project that total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 30-40% by 2029, reaching around 55-65 incidents annually. However, this prediction assumes current trends and efforts in crime prevention continue.
In conclusion, Vermilion has experienced a significant and consistent reduction in property crimes across all categories from 2010 to 2019. This positive trend, coupled with stable population figures and improving economic indicators, paints a picture of a community that has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety and quality of life for its residents. The projected continuation of this downward trend in property crimes bodes well for the city's future, potentially making it an increasingly attractive place to live and invest in the coming years.
