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Property Crime Trends in Maryville, Missouri: A Decade of Shifts Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Maryville, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of changing demographics. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city increased by 11%, rising from 182 to 202 incidents. This change occurred while the population decreased by 6.5%, from 15,184 to 14,197 residents during the same period.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 42 in 2014 before declining to 43 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.51 in 2010 to 3.03 in 2022, a 100% increase. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries rose dramatically from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.32% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to statewide trends. This suggests that while the population decreased, burglary became a more prevalent issue in the city relative to the rest of the state.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a different pattern. The number of incidents increased from 145 in 2010 to 146 in 2022, a minimal change. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 9.55 to 10.28, a 7.6% rise. The city's contribution to state larceny theft increased from 0.13% to 0.19% over this period, indicating a slightly higher proportion of these crimes occurring in the city compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a concerning upward trend. The number of incidents nearly doubled from 14 in 2010 to 13 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.92 to 0.92, remaining stable despite the population decrease. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.11% to 0.05%, suggesting that while this crime type increased locally, it did not outpace state trends.
Arson cases were rare but showed a significant increase in recent years. From no reported cases in 2010-2020, arson incidents rose to 4 in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.28 per 1,000 residents in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's contribution to state arson cases jumped to 0.65% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state levels.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,382 per square mile in 2010 to 2,227 in 2022, overall property crime rates increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the rise in median income (from $33,959 in 2013 to $43,348 in 2022) and the increase in certain property crimes, particularly burglary and motor vehicle theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall property crime rates. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are expected to show the most significant increases, potentially rising by 15-20% from 2022 levels. Larceny theft is projected to remain relatively stable with slight fluctuations. Arson cases, while low in number, may continue to occur sporadically, maintaining the city's elevated contribution to state totals.
In summary, Maryville has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While the overall number of incidents has increased modestly, the rates per capita have risen more significantly due to the declining population. The city's increasing share of state crime percentages, particularly in burglary and arson, suggests localized factors influencing these trends. These changes, occurring alongside increases in median income and shifts in population density, paint a picture of a city grappling with evolving security challenges amidst demographic changes.
