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Property Crime Trends in Liberty, Missouri: A Decade of Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Liberty, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 567 in 2010, reaching a peak of 596 in 2015, and then declining to 511 in 2018, representing a 9.9% decrease over the entire period. During this same timeframe, the city's population grew from 33,464 in 2010 to 37,785 in 2018, an increase of 12.9%.
Burglary rates in the city showed a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 102 burglaries, which increased to 155 in 2015, but then sharply decreased to 69 in 2018, a 32.4% reduction over the entire period. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.05 in 2010 to 1.83 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.63% in 2015 before dropping to 0.37% in 2018, suggesting improved local burglary prevention relative to state trends.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed less dramatic changes. The number of incidents decreased slightly from 420 in 2010 to 383 in 2018, a 8.8% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased more significantly from 12.55 in 2010 to 10.14 in 2018. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.37% in 2010 to 0.43% in 2018, indicating that while local rates improved, they did so at a slower pace than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft presented a concerning upward trend. Incidents increased from 45 in 2010 to 59 in 2018, a 31.1% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.34 in 2010 to 1.56 in 2018. Moreover, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.34% to 0.39% over this period, suggesting a local challenge in controlling this specific crime type compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city showed a significant decline, dropping from 9 incidents in 2010 to just 1 in 2018, an 88.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.27 to 0.03. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated greatly, peaking at 1.09% in 2014 before dropping to 0.15% in 2018, indicating volatile local trends compared to state patterns.
Examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship appears between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $80,218 in 2013 to $83,543 in 2018, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, the stable homeownership rate of around 77% throughout this period coincides with the general downward trend in property crimes, suggesting a possible link between community stability and crime reduction.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Liberty may see a continued decrease in burglary and larceny-theft rates, potentially reaching as low as 50 burglaries and 350 larceny-thefts annually. However, motor vehicle thefts might continue to rise, possibly reaching 80 incidents per year. Arson cases are likely to remain low, potentially stabilizing at 1-2 incidents annually.
In summary, Liberty has shown overall improvement in property crime rates from 2010 to 2018, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite population growth. The rising median income and stable homeownership rates appear to correlate with these positive trends. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts presents an ongoing challenge. These trends suggest that while the city has made progress in crime reduction, targeted efforts may be needed to address specific areas of concern, particularly motor vehicle theft, to ensure continued improvement in overall public safety.
