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Property Crime Trends in Marshfield, Missouri: Birthplace of Edwin Hubble Faces Rising Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Marshfield, Missouri, a small city with a rich history in the heart of the Ozarks, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 40.1%, from 137 to 192 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 7.3%, from 13,197 to 14,156 residents, indicating that crime rates have outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 21 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 46 in 2019, before declining to 36 in 2022. This represents a 71.4% increase over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.59 in 2010 to 2.54 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased substantially, from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.27% in 2022, suggesting a growing concentration of burglary incidents relative to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw an overall increase from 110 incidents in 2010 to 139 in 2022, a 26.4% rise. However, the peak was in 2014 with 288 incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated, starting at 8.33 in 2010, peaking at 20.98 in 2014, and settling at 9.82 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft increased from 0.1% to 0.18% over the period, indicating a growing share of this crime type relative to the state.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been volatile. Starting with 6 incidents in 2010, it reached a low of 2 in 2014, then peaked at 31 in 2021, before settling at 17 in 2022 – a 183.3% increase over the 12-year span. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.45 in 2010 to 1.20 in 2022. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.05% to 0.07%, showing a slight increase in its share of this crime type.
Arson data is limited, with only one year (2021) reporting 3 incidents. This singular data point makes it difficult to establish trends or draw meaningful conclusions about arson in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between property crime rates and population density. As density increased from 2,390 per square mile in 2010 to 2,564 in 2022, property crimes generally trended upward, though with fluctuations. There's also a weak negative correlation with median income; as income rose from $48,213 in 2013 to $60,274 in 2022, property crime rates showed a slight overall decline, particularly in recent years.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates may stabilize or slightly decrease if current trends continue. The city might expect around 180-200 property crimes annually, with burglaries potentially decreasing to 30-35 per year, larceny thefts hovering around 130-150, and motor vehicle thefts potentially stabilizing at 15-20 incidents annually.
In summary, Marshfield has experienced varying trends across different property crime categories over the past decade. While burglaries and larceny thefts have shown some signs of stabilization in recent years, motor vehicle thefts have increased significantly. The city's growing share of state crime percentages across these categories suggests that property crime has become a more pronounced issue in Marshfield relative to the rest of Missouri. These trends, coupled with the city's population growth and changing socioeconomic factors, underscore the need for targeted crime prevention strategies to address the specific challenges faced by this evolving community.
