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Property Crime Trends in Mansfield, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mansfield, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 94 incidents in 2017 and dropping to just 12 in 2022, representing an overall decrease of 76% over this period. Interestingly, this substantial reduction in property crime occurred alongside a population growth from 2,574 in 2010 to 2,777 in 2022, an increase of 7.9%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries reported, which decreased to zero by 2022. This represents a 100% reduction in burglary incidents. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.88 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics has also diminished, from 0.03% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. This trend suggests a significant improvement in home and property security within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 40 reported cases, which dropped to 12 in 2022, a 70% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 15.54 in 2010 to 4.32 in 2022. Despite this decline, the city's share of state-wide larceny-theft incidents decreased only slightly, from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft may be part of a broader state-wide trend.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the period. From zero incidents in 2010, it peaked at 6 cases in 2018, before returning to zero in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest at 2.42 in 2018 but was 0 in both 2010 and 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft statistics has been minimal, never exceeding 0.04% (in 2018) and returning to 0% by 2022.
Arson cases have been rare in the city, with zero incidents reported from 2010 to 2021. However, in 2022, one arson case was reported, representing 0.16% of state-wide arson incidents. This single case resulted in a rate of 0.36 per 1,000 residents in 2022. While this is an increase, it's important to note that a single incident in a small population can significantly impact percentages.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $27,276 in 2013 to $40,249 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic prosperity and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units decreased from 72% in 2013 to 66% in 2020, before rising again to 74% in 2022. This fluctuation doesn't seem to correlate strongly with property crime trends, indicating that other factors may have more influence on crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, we might expect to see burglary and motor vehicle theft rates remain very low or at zero. Larceny-theft is likely to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching single-digit incidents annually. However, the recent appearance of arson in 2022 introduces an element of unpredictability, and it will be crucial to monitor this category closely.
In summary, Mansfield has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest a community that has become safer and more prosperous over time. However, the recent arson incident highlights the need for continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.
