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Property Crime Trends in Potosi, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Potosi, located in Missouri, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 62.9%, from 116 to 189 incidents. During this same period, the population saw a modest growth of 0.86%, from 8,428 to 8,356 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 16 burglaries, which peaked at 52 in 2021 before dropping sharply to 13 in 2022. This represents a 225% increase from 2010 to 2021, followed by a 75% decrease from 2021 to 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.90 in 2010 to 6.43 in 2021, then fell to 1.56 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.41% in 2021 before dropping to 0.10% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest periodic spikes in burglary activity followed by significant improvements in prevention or enforcement.
Larceny theft has remained the most common property crime in the city. The number of incidents increased from 100 in 2010 to 166 in 2022, a 66% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 11.87 to 19.87 over this period. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts increased from 0.09% to 0.21%, indicating a growing share of this crime type relative to the state. This trend suggests a persistent challenge with theft-related offenses in the community.
Motor vehicle theft showed an overall increasing trend, rising from 0 incidents in 2010 to 10 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 1.20. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0% to 0.04%. While the absolute numbers remain relatively low, the upward trend indicates a growing concern for vehicle security in the area.
Arson cases were rare but saw a notable spike in 2020 with 5 incidents, corresponding to 0.65% of state arsons. In 2022, there was 1 arson case, representing 0.16% of state arsons. The rate per 1,000 people went from 0 in 2010 to 0.12 in 2022. Although infrequent, the occurrence of arson cases highlights the need for fire safety and prevention measures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density fluctuated between 3,194 and 3,619 people per square mile over the years, property crime rates tended to follow similar patterns. For instance, in 2016, when the population density reached 3,407, property crimes peaked at 193 incidents. Conversely, in 2015, when the density was at its lowest (3,195), property crimes were also relatively low at 144 incidents.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates over the next five years. By 2029, burglaries may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain below the peak levels seen in 2021. Larceny theft is expected to remain the predominant property crime, potentially reaching around 180-190 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts may continue their gradual increase, potentially reaching 15-20 cases per year. Arson cases are likely to remain low but unpredictable, with occasional spikes possible.
In summary, Potosi has faced challenges with property crime, particularly larceny theft, over the past decade. The fluctuations in burglary rates and the gradual increase in motor vehicle thefts highlight areas requiring continued attention from law enforcement and community prevention efforts. The correlation between population density and crime rates suggests that urban planning and community engagement strategies could play a role in crime prevention moving forward.
