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Property Crime Trends in Malden, Missouri: A Decade of Increasing Challenges Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Malden, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable increase from 44 incidents in 2010 to 96 in 2022, representing a 118.18% increase. This significant rise in property crime occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 5,584 in 2010 to 4,715 in 2022, a 15.56% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown considerable variation over the years. In 2010, there were 20 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 41 in 2016 before declining to 24 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 3.58 in 2010 to 5.09 in 2022. Notably, the city's contribution to state-wide burglaries increased significantly, from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2022. This trend suggests that while the city's population decreased, its burglary issues became more pronounced relative to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have also fluctuated, starting at 19 cases in 2010, peaking at 60 in 2016, and settling at 64 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.40 in 2010 to 13.57 in 2022, a substantial rise. The city's share of state-wide larceny-theft grew from 0.02% to 0.08% over this period. This trend indicates that larceny-theft has become a more significant issue for the city, both in absolute terms and relative to its population size.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a marked increase. From 5 incidents in 2010, it rose to 22 in 2021, then slightly decreased to 8 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.90 in 2010 to 1.70 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft fluctuated but overall decreased slightly from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft has become more prevalent within the city, it hasn't grown as rapidly as in other parts of the state.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low. There was one reported case in 2010, 2013, and 2016, with no reported cases in other years. The rate per 1,000 residents for years with reported cases was consistently low at around 0.18. The city's contribution to state-wide arson cases fluctuated between 0% and 0.13%, indicating that arson is not a significant ongoing concern for the city compared to other property crimes.
A strong correlation exists between the increase in property crimes and the decline in population density. As the population density decreased from 671 per square mile in 2010 to 566 in 2022, property crimes increased. This could suggest that a less densely populated area might be more vulnerable to property crimes. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median income and increased property crime rates. The median income rose from $30,523 in 2013 to $40,534 in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in property crimes. This unexpected correlation might indicate that as the area became relatively more affluent, it also became a more attractive target for property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued increase in overall property crimes if current trends persist. The model suggests that by 2029, the city could see approximately 120-130 property crimes annually, with larceny-theft likely remaining the most common offense. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 25-30 cases per year, while motor vehicle theft could potentially increase to 15-20 cases annually.
In summary, Malden has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft and burglary, despite a declining population. The city's contribution to state-wide property crimes has generally increased, indicating that it faces growing challenges in this area relative to other parts of Missouri. The unexpected correlation between rising incomes and increased property crime rates suggests a complex interplay of socioeconomic factors influencing criminal activity in the area. As the city looks toward the future, addressing these trends will be crucial for improving public safety and maintaining community well-being.
