Motor vehicle theft trends were more variable. The number of incidents decreased from 27 in 2011 to 26 in 2022, a modest 3.7% reduction. However, when accounting for population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 1.09 in 2011 to 1.07 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.55% in 2011, dropping to a low of 0.23% in 2017, and then rising to 0.63% in 2022. This suggests that while the city maintained relatively stable motor vehicle theft numbers, it may have fared worse than the state average in recent years.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, with some fluctuations. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 7 per year, with 5 cases in 2011 and 1 case in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.20 in 2011 to 0.04 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state arsons varied widely, from 0% in 2017 to a high of 4.12% in 2018, settling at 0.72% in 2022. This volatility in percentages is likely due to the small number of incidents, where small changes can lead to large percentage shifts.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with a slight increase in median income, which rose from $43,510 in 2013 to $49,753 in 2022. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, hovering around 62-66% throughout the period, which may have contributed to the overall decrease in property crimes.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in Madisonville are likely to continue their downward trajectory over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect to see total property crimes decrease further, potentially reaching around 120-150 incidents annually. Burglaries could potentially drop to around 30-40 cases per year, while larceny thefts might decrease to 70-80 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts and arsons are likely to remain relatively stable or show slight decreases, possibly ranging from 20-25 and 0-2 incidents per year, respectively.

In summary, Madisonville has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglaries and larceny thefts. The city's progress in reducing property crimes, particularly when compared to state averages, suggests effective local strategies in crime prevention and community safety. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing the slight upticks in motor vehicle thefts will be crucial for continued improvement in overall public safety.