Motor vehicle theft trends have remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations. There were 2 reported cases in both 2010 and 2012, dropping to 0 in 2017, and then rising back to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.58 in 2010 to 0.27 in 2022. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.05% in 2010, dropping to 0% in 2017, and rising to 0.02% in 2022. These figures suggest that while motor vehicle theft is not a major issue, it remains a persistent concern.

Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only one reported incident in 2016, accounting for 0.55% of state arsons that year. In all other years from 2010 to 2022, there were no reported arson cases. This isolated incident does not indicate a significant trend or ongoing problem with arson in the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,110 per square mile in 2010 to 1,179 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. This suggests that increased population density may have contributed to enhanced community surveillance and reduced crime opportunities. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units decreased from 66% in 2013 to 57% in 2022, which coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes. This could indicate that changes in housing ownership patterns may have influenced crime rates, although the exact nature of this relationship requires further investigation.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crime rates. Based on the recent uptick from 1 incident in 2021 to 3 in 2022, we might expect the number of property crimes to range between 3 to 5 annually by 2029. However, this prediction assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain relatively constant.

In summary, Cumberland has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite a growing population. Burglaries and larceny-thefts have seen the most dramatic decreases, while motor vehicle thefts have remained relatively stable at low levels. The absence of a persistent arson problem is also noteworthy. These trends, coupled with changes in population density and housing ownership, paint a picture of a community that has become safer over time. However, the recent slight increase in property crimes suggests the need for continued vigilance and proactive measures to maintain the positive trends observed over the past decade.