Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Luverne, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuation and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Luverne, Alabama presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends from 2012 to 2022. The city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 116 in 2016 to 47 in 2022, a 59.5% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population decrease of 11.6%, with the city's population falling from 4,358 in 2012 to 3,854 in 2022.
Burglary rates in Luverne demonstrated considerable variability over the decade. Reported burglaries increased from 10 in 2012 to a peak of 33 in 2016, before declining to 5 in 2022, representing a 50% decrease from 2012 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 2.29 in 2012 to 7.78 in 2016, then fell to 1.30 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated accordingly, rising from 0.03% in 2012 to 0.16% in 2016, then dropping to 0.04% in 2022.
Larceny-theft trends followed a similar pattern of fluctuation. Incidents increased from 39 in 2012 to 75 in 2016, before declining to 36 in 2022, a 7.7% decrease over the decade. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 8.95 in 2012 to 17.68 in 2016, then decreased to 9.34 in 2022. Luverne's proportion of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.05% in 2012 to 0.11% in 2016, then slightly decreased to 0.08% in 2022.
Motor vehicle theft in Luverne showed an overall increase over the decade. From 4 incidents in 2012, it rose to 11 in 2021, before slightly decreasing to 6 in 2022, representing a 50% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.92 in 2012 to 2.67 in 2021, then decreased to 1.56 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.06% in 2012 to 0.19% in 2021, before decreasing to 0.09% in 2022.
Arson data for Luverne is limited, with most years reporting no available data. The only recorded data shows 0 arson cases in 2021 and 2022, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends.
An examination of correlations reveals a potential relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $29,880 in 2013 to $52,604 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 68 to 47. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 61% in 2013 to 68% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher home ownership rates correlate with lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029, total property crimes in Luverne could decrease to approximately 35-40 incidents annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes ongoing improvements in economic conditions and stable or increasing home ownership rates.
In conclusion, Luverne has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite some fluctuations. The most significant improvements occurred in recent years, coinciding with increases in median income and home ownership rates. However, motor vehicle theft remains a concern, showing an overall increase. These trends, combined with the city's declining population, suggest a complex interplay between demographic changes, economic factors, and crime rates. Moving forward, maintaining focus on economic development and community engagement could be key to sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
