Motor vehicle theft in Lumberton displayed a fluctuating trend. The number of incidents decreased from 175 in 2010 to 151 in 2022, a 13.71% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 4.79 to 4.68. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 1.66% to 1.04%, indicating a more significant reduction in Lumberton compared to the state average.

Arson cases in Lumberton showed a concerning trend. The number of reported cases decreased from 12 in 2010 to 3 in 2014, but then rose sharply to 21 in 2016. By 2022, there were 11 cases. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.33 in 2010 to 0.34 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's share of state arson cases rose from 1.18% in 2010 to 1.25% in 2022, indicating a growing problem relative to the state average.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between property crime trends and population density in Lumberton. As the population density decreased from 2,055 per square mile in 2010 to 1,815 in 2022, overall property crime rates also showed a general decline. However, this correlation is not consistent across all types of property crimes, particularly arson.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for Lumberton up to 2029, we can anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes if current trends persist. However, the rate of decrease may slow down, and some specific types of crime, such as arson, may continue to fluctuate or potentially increase.

In summary, Lumberton has shown a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the increasing share of state burglaries and the concerning trend in arson cases highlight areas that may require focused attention. The city's declining population and density appear to have some influence on crime rates, but other factors likely play significant roles in these complex trends.