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Property Crime Trends in Louisiana, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Increases
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Louisiana, Missouri, a small urban area with a population of 5,111 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2021, the total number of property crimes increased from 21 to 57, representing a 171.43% increase. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 5,041 to 4,893, a decrease of 2.94%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2011, there were 5 burglaries, which dropped to 1 in 2012, but then rose to 15 in 2016, representing the peak. By 2021, burglaries decreased to 9. The burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.99 in 2011 to 1.84 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.07% in 2016 and 2021, indicating an increased contribution to state burglary statistics despite its small size.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. The number of incidents increased from 16 in 2011 to 35 in 2021, a 118.75% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 3.17 to 7.15 over this period. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.01% in 2011 to 0.05% in 2021, suggesting a growing impact on state statistics relative to its population size.
Motor vehicle theft trends show a concerning increase. From zero incidents in 2011, the number rose to 13 in 2021. This translates to a rate increase from 0 to 2.66 per 1,000 people. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0% to 0.07%, indicating a disproportionate rise compared to state trends.
Arson cases have remained relatively low but consistent. The city reported one arson case in 2011, 2016, 2017, and 2021, with no cases in other years. The arson rate per 1,000 people remained stable at around 0.20 when incidents occurred. The city's contribution to state arson statistics fluctuated, reaching 0.15% in 2021, suggesting a significant impact for its size.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $35,850 in 2013 to $48,200 in 2021, property crimes also rose from 15 to 57. This suggests that rising incomes may not have deterred property crime in the city. Additionally, the slight decrease in owner-occupied housing from 72% in 2013 to 73% in 2021 coincides with the increase in property crimes, potentially indicating a link between property ownership and crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may experience approximately 75-80 property crimes annually if current trends continue. This represents a potential increase of 31.58% to 40.35% from the 2021 figure of 57 property crimes.
In summary, Louisiana has faced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft. The disproportionate rise in the city's contribution to state crime statistics, especially in burglary and motor vehicle theft, suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. The correlation between rising median incomes and increased property crime rates presents a complex challenge for local policymakers and law enforcement agencies.
