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Declining Home Values and Ownership in Wells-Goodfellow: A Decade of Transition
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Wells-Goodfellow, a neighborhood in St. Louis, Missouri, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This urban area, known for its diverse community, has seen a shift towards a renter-dominated market with declining homeownership rates and fluctuating home prices. The neighborhood's housing dynamics reflect broader economic trends and local factors, presenting a complex scenario for residents and potential investors. The homeownership rate in Wells-Goodfellow has shown a gradual decline over the years. In 2013, 38% of residents owned their homes, which increased to 45% in 2014. However, this upward trend was short-lived, as the rate decreased to 34% by 2022. This decline in homeownership coincides with changes in average home prices. In 2016, the average home price was $43,940, which remained relatively stable until 2018 when it began to decrease. By 2020, the average home price had dropped to $39,623, representing a 9.8% decline from 2016. This downward trend in both homeownership rates and home prices suggests a challenging market for potential buyers in the neighborhood.
Federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in Wells-Goodfellow. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were exceptionally low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), homeownership rates in the neighborhood remained relatively stable. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 (1.00%) to 2019 (2.16%), there was a corresponding decline in homeownership rates. This trend aligns with the general principle that higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
The renter population in Wells-Goodfellow has consistently outnumbered homeowners. The percentage of renters increased from 55% in 2014 to 65% in 2022. This rise in renter occupancy has been accompanied by fluctuations in average rent prices. In 2013, the average rent was $751, which decreased to $721 in 2014. Rent prices then showed an upward trend, reaching $783 in 2020, and further increasing to $872 in 2021, representing a 16.1% increase from 2013. This increase in both renter percentage and rent prices suggests a growing demand for rental properties in the area, possibly driven by the declining homeownership rates and changing demographics.
In 2023 and 2024, Wells-Goodfellow experienced a significant drop in average home prices. The average home price in 2023 was $36,680, a 14.6% decrease from 2022. This downward trend continued into 2024, with the average home price further declining to $34,713. Interestingly, this price drop occurred despite a substantial increase in federal interest rates, which rose to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. This unusual combination of falling home prices and rising interest rates suggests unique local market conditions affecting the neighborhood's real estate landscape.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that average home prices in Wells-Goodfellow may continue to face challenges in the short term but could stabilize or slightly increase over the next five years. Rent prices, on the other hand, are projected to maintain an upward trajectory, potentially reaching or surpassing $900 per month by 2029. These forecasts are based on current trends and historical data, considering factors such as the neighborhood's changing demographics, economic conditions, and housing market dynamics.
In summary, Wells-Goodfellow has experienced a shift towards a renter-dominated market over the past decade, with declining homeownership rates and fluctuating home prices. The recent sharp decline in average home prices, coupled with rising interest rates, presents a complex scenario for the neighborhood's housing market. As the rental market continues to strengthen, with rising rent prices and an increasing proportion of renters, Wells-Goodfellow may see further changes in its residential landscape in the coming years.
