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Property Crime Trends in Long Beach, Mississippi: A Decade of Resilience Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Long Beach, Mississippi, is a coastal community that has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 12.9%, from 302 to 263 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 20.7%, from 17,424 to 21,025 residents, indicating a notable improvement in overall property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable fluctuation. In 2010, there were 71 burglaries, which decreased to 54 in 2022, representing a 23.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.07 in 2010 to 2.57 in 2022, a 36.9% improvement. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.41% in 2010 to 1.64% in 2022, suggesting a relative improvement compared to statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents have seen a slight decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 217 reported cases, which dropped to 189 in 2022, a 12.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 12.45 in 2010 to 8.99 in 2022, a 27.8% improvement. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents rose from 0.65% to 1.34% during this period, indicating that the local reduction was less pronounced than the statewide trend.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an increase. From 14 incidents in 2010, it rose to 20 in 2022, a 42.9% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased only slightly from 0.80 to 0.95, a 18.8% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.43% to 1.18%, suggesting a more significant local increase compared to statewide trends.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low. In 2010, there were 2 reported arsons, representing 0.67% of state arsons. By 2022, no arsons were reported, indicating a complete elimination of this crime category in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As population density increased from 1,701 per square mile in 2010 to 2,052 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income rose from $53,793 in 2013 to $56,744 in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent. Burglary and larceny-theft are likely to continue their downward trajectory, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase.
In summary, Long Beach has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft remains an area for ongoing attention. These trends, coupled with increasing population density and rising median incomes, suggest a positive trajectory for the city's safety and economic development. As Long Beach continues to grow, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies will be crucial to sustain and improve upon these encouraging trends.
