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Property Crime Trends in Lexington, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lexington, Missouri, a small community with a population of 5,858 in 2022, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. The total number of property crimes decreased by 51.4% from 183 in 2010 to 89 in 2020, while the population remained relatively stable, decreasing by only 1.2% during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 34 burglaries, which decreased to 20 in 2020, representing a 41.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.87 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.49 per 1,000 people in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2020, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a significant reduction. In 2010, there were 141 reported cases, which dropped to 63 in 2020, a 55.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people declined from 24.33 in 2010 to 11.00 in 2020. However, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.12% to 0.08% during this period, suggesting that the city's improvement outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively stable, with 8 cases in 2010 and 6 in 2020, a 25% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 1.38 in 2010 to 1.05 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.06% to 0.03%, indicating that the city maintained better control over this crime category compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city were rare but showed an increase. From a single case in 2010 to 2 cases in 2020, the rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.17 to 0.35. More notably, the city's share of state arson cases rose dramatically from 0.1% to 0.26%, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $55,293 in 2019 to $69,786 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the slight increase in racial diversity and the decrease in property crimes. The percentage of white residents decreased from 90% in 2020 to 89% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 4% to 9% during the same period.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Lexington may continue to decrease slightly. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trend, potentially reaching rates of 2.5 and 8 per 1,000 people, respectively. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize around 1 per 1,000 people. However, arson cases might show a slight increase, potentially reaching 0.5 per 1,000 people.
In summary, Lexington has shown significant improvement in most property crime categories over the past decade, outperforming state averages in several areas. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests that economic factors play a crucial role in the city's crime landscape. The city's changing demographics, particularly the increase in Hispanic population, coincides with reduced crime rates, indicating a potentially positive impact of increased diversity. While most property crime types are expected to continue their downward trend, vigilance against arson may be necessary in the coming years.
