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Property Crime Trends in Leadwood, Missouri: A Study of Fluctuations and Projections
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Leadwood, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 23 in 2010 and ending at 30 in 2018, representing a 30.43% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 1,543 in 2010 to 1,566 in 2018, a modest 1.49% increase.
Burglary trends in the city showed significant volatility. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries, which peaked at 10 in both 2012 and 2013, before declining to 9 in 2018. The burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 5.18 in 2010 to 5.75 in 2018, indicating a slight upward trend relative to population growth. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, ranging from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2018, suggesting an increasing contribution to statewide burglary figures despite its small size.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a more stable pattern, starting at 13 cases in 2010 and increasing to 17 in 2018, a 30.77% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 8.43 in 2010 to 10.86 in 2018, indicating an increase in larceny-theft outpacing population growth. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft remained relatively constant at 0.01% to 0.02%, suggesting that while local incidents increased, they remained a small fraction of statewide occurrences.
Motor vehicle theft trends were erratic. From 2 cases in 2010, it reached a high of 4 in 2018, a 100% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.30 in 2010 to 2.55 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0% and 0.03%, with the highest percentage recorded in 2018, indicating a growing problem relative to state figures.
Arson cases were rare, with only two reported incidents in the dataset – one each in 2015 and 2017. These isolated events resulted in spikes in the city's share of state arsons, reaching 0.12% and 0.13% respectively in those years. The sporadic nature of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or relationship with population changes.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,333 per square mile in 2010 to 1,353 in 2018, total property crimes also rose. Interestingly, there seems to be an inverse relationship between property crime and median income. As median income increased from $31,750 in 2013 to $34,421 in 2018, property crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally decreased from their peak in 2012.
Applying predictive models based on historical data, we can forecast that by 2029, Leadwood may experience a slight increase in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are projected to stabilize around 6-7 incidents per year, while larceny-theft could see a moderate increase to approximately 20-22 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is predicted to remain volatile but may average around 2-3 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain rare and sporadic.
In summary, Leadwood has experienced fluctuating property crime trends over the past decade, with some types of crime showing more significant changes than others. The most notable discoveries include the substantial increase in motor vehicle thefts, the relative stability of larceny-theft incidents as a percentage of state totals, and the inverse relationship between rising median income and overall property crime rates. These trends, when considered alongside demographic changes, provide valuable insights into the evolving safety landscape of this small Missouri community.
