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Violent Crime Trends in Lake Ozark, Missouri: A Story of Growth and Safety
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lake Ozark, Missouri, a city known for its picturesque lakeside setting, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, ranging from a low of 0 in 2020 to a high of 10 in 2012. Concurrently, the city's population grew from 4,344 in 2010 to 5,589 in 2022, representing a 28.7% increase.
Murder rates in the city have been relatively low, with only one year, 2017, reporting any murders (3 cases). This spike represented 0.6% of the state's total murders that year. Given the small population, this translates to a rate of 0.67 murders per 1,000 residents in 2017, a significant increase from the zero rates in other years. The isolated nature of this event suggests it may have been an anomaly rather than a trend.
Rape incidents have been sporadic, with reported cases in 2010 (1 case) and 2022 (2 cases). The 2022 figure represents 0.09% of the state's total rapes, with a rate of 0.36 per 1,000 residents. This indicates a slight increase in the rape rate over time, though the small numbers make it difficult to establish a clear trend.
Robbery has been rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2016. This single incident represented 0.02% of the state's robberies that year, with a rate of 0.21 per 1,000 residents. The infrequency of robberies suggests it is not a persistent issue for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, with numbers fluctuating over the years. The highest number was recorded in 2012 with 10 cases, representing 0.07% of the state's total. In 2022, there were 4 cases, or 0.02% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 residents has decreased from 2.16 in 2012 to 0.72 in 2022, indicating an overall downward trend despite population growth.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 604 per square mile in 2010 to 777 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a general decline, particularly in recent years. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Racial demographics show minimal correlation with crime trends. The white population has remained dominant, decreasing slightly from 97% in 2013 to 90% in 2022, while other racial groups have seen small increases. However, these changes do not align consistently with violent crime patterns.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Lake Ozark may continue to fluctuate but remain relatively low over the next five years (up to 2029). The city's growing population and increasing density may contribute to a slight uptick in overall crime numbers, but the per capita rate is expected to remain stable or potentially decrease.
In summary, Lake Ozark has experienced variable but generally low levels of violent crime over the past decade. The most significant concerns have been isolated incidents of murder and a fluctuating rate of aggravated assaults. As the city continues to grow, maintaining vigilance in law enforcement and community safety measures will be crucial to preserving the relatively low crime environment that has characterized recent years.
