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Property Crime Trends in Laurel Park: A Small Town's Declining Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Laurel Park, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2017, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 12 in 2011, peaking at 24 in 2013, and then decreasing to 11 in 2017, representing an overall decrease of 8.33% over this period. During the same timeframe, the population experienced a slight decline, from 3,358 in 2011 to 3,056 in 2017, a decrease of 9%.
Burglary rates in the city showed minimal activity. In 2011, 2013, 2014, and 2016, there were no reported burglaries. The highest number of burglaries occurred in 2012 with 2 incidents, followed by 1 incident each in 2015 and 2017. Given the low numbers, calculating per capita rates or percentages of state crime is not statistically meaningful. However, it's worth noting that even at its peak, burglary remained a rare occurrence in the community.
Larceny-theft was consistently the most prevalent property crime in the city. It peaked in 2013 with 24 incidents and reached its lowest point in 2016 with 7 incidents. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 3.57 in 2011 to 2.95 in 2017, with a high of 7.38 in 2013. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained minimal, ranging from 0.01% to 0.02% throughout the period, indicating that the local trends had little impact on state-level statistics.
Motor vehicle theft was infrequent, with zero incidents reported in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015. The highest number of motor vehicle thefts was recorded in 2016 with 2 incidents, representing 0.03% of the state's total. In 2014 and 2017, there was 1 incident each year. The per capita rate never exceeded 0.67 per 1,000 residents (in 2016), suggesting that motor vehicle theft was not a significant concern for the community.
There were no reported cases of arson throughout the entire period from 2011 to 2017, indicating that this particular crime was not an issue for the city during these years.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and other socioeconomic factors, a notable relationship emerges with median income. As the median income increased from $62,579 in 2013 to $66,239 in 2017, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime from 24 incidents to 11 incidents. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and property crime rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 79% in 2013 to 82% in 2017, property crime incidents decreased. This could indicate that higher rates of home ownership may contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from the current year 2024), we can anticipate a continuation of the overall declining trend in property crime. Based on the historical data and current socioeconomic indicators, it's projected that the total number of property crimes could potentially decrease further, possibly reaching single digits annually by 2029.
In summary, Laurel Park has experienced a generally positive trend in property crime reduction from 2011 to 2017. The most significant discoveries include the consistent decline in larceny-theft, which comprises the majority of property crimes, and the virtual absence of arson. The correlations between rising median income, increasing home ownership rates, and declining crime rates suggest that continued economic growth and community stability could further reduce property crime in the future. These trends position Laurel Park as a community with improving safety metrics and potentially increasing attractiveness for residents and businesses alike.
