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Property Crime Trends in Lake Jackson, Texas: A Decade of Improvement Amid Rising Vehicle Thefts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lake Jackson, located in Texas, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 33.1%, from 685 to 458 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 12.7%, from 30,742 to 34,648 residents, indicating an overall improvement in property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 120 burglaries, which decreased to 36 by 2022, representing a 70% reduction. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.90 in 2010 to 1.04 in 2022, a 73.3% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, starting at 0.07% in 2010, peaking at 0.10% in 2014 and 2019, and declining to 0.05% by 2022. This substantial reduction in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the city.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Lake Jackson, also showed a declining trend. The number of incidents decreased from 547 in 2010 to 384 in 2022, a 29.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 17.79 to 11.08, a 37.7% decrease. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.08% and 0.15% over the years, ending at 0.10% in 2022. This consistent share of state cases, despite the local decrease, might indicate that Lake Jackson's improvements in larceny prevention are in line with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends in the city present a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased from 18 in 2010 to 38 in 2022, a 111.1% rise, the rate per 1,000 residents grew less dramatically, from 0.59 to 1.10, an 86.4% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, with a peak of 0.08% in 2020. This increase, especially relative to the state, suggests that Lake Jackson may be facing new challenges in preventing vehicle thefts.
Arson cases in Lake Jackson have remained relatively low throughout the period. The number of incidents fluctuated between 0 and 4 per year, with 1 case reported in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.13, and the city's share of state arson cases ranged from 0% to 0.13%. The low and variable numbers make it difficult to identify a clear trend, but the consistently low figures suggest that arson is not a major concern for the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $82,401 in 2013 to $87,939 in 2022, there was a general decrease in property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny-thefts. This suggests that rising economic prosperity may contribute to lower property crime rates. Additionally, the slight decrease in homeownership rates from 68% in 2013 to 66% in 2022 coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes, potentially indicating that changes in housing tenure have not significantly impacted crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. Based on the historical data, we can project that burglaries and larceny-thefts are likely to continue decreasing, albeit at a slower rate. Motor vehicle thefts, however, may continue to rise slightly or stabilize at current levels. Arson cases are expected to remain low and sporadic.
In conclusion, Lake Jackson has demonstrated a positive trend in managing property crimes over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The city's ability to decrease property crime rates while experiencing population growth is particularly noteworthy. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for focused attention in the coming years. As Lake Jackson continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends in property crime reduction will be crucial for the safety and well-being of its residents.
