Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 4 reported cases, which increased to 6 in 2022, a 50% increase. However, when considering population changes, the rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.06 in 2010 to 1.91 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics has fluctuated between 0% and 0.01%. This increase in motor vehicle thefts, especially when considering the population decrease, may warrant targeted prevention efforts.

Arson cases in Somerset have been rare, with zero reported cases from 2010 to 2021. However, in 2022, there was one reported arson case, resulting in a rate of 0.32 per 1,000 people. This single case represented 0.05% of the state's arson incidents for that year. While this isolated incident doesn't necessarily indicate a trend, it may be worth monitoring in future years.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,884 per square mile in 2010 to 1,572 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that lower population density may be associated with reduced property crime incidence. Additionally, the median income increased from $45,288 in 2013 to $59,460 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This could indicate that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, burglary and larceny theft rates are expected to remain low, potentially decreasing further. However, motor vehicle theft rates may continue to fluctuate or potentially increase slightly if recent trends persist.

In summary, Somerset has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny theft. The increase in motor vehicle thefts and the recent arson incident warrant continued attention. The correlations between decreasing population density, increasing median income, and reduced crime rates suggest that socioeconomic factors play a role in the city's crime landscape. As the community moves forward, maintaining and enhancing crime prevention strategies will be crucial to sustaining these positive trends.