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Property Crime Trends in La Plata, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations Despite Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
La Plata, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 2 in 2010 to 7 in 2019, representing a 250% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 1,695 in 2010 to 1,560 in 2019, a decline of approximately 8%.
Burglary rates in the city showed significant variation over time. In 2010 and 2011, there were no reported burglaries. However, the number increased to 5 in 2013, representing 0.02% of the state's burglaries. This spike was followed by a decrease to 1 burglary in 2015 and 2017, before rising again to 3 in 2019. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2010 to 1.92 per 1,000 in 2019. This trend suggests an increasing vulnerability to burglaries despite the declining population.
Larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 1 and 5 cases annually. The highest number was recorded in 2012 with 5 incidents, while 2019 saw 3 cases. When adjusted for population, the rate increased slightly from 0.59 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.92 per 1,000 in 2019. Interestingly, the percentage of state larceny-theft attributable to La Plata remained consistently at 0%, indicating that these incidents had minimal impact on statewide statistics.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed volatility. There was 1 incident in 2010, followed by no cases in 2011-2013. The number peaked at 2 incidents in 2014 and 2017, before decreasing to 1 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.59 in 2010 to 0.64 in 2019. Notably, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2019, suggesting a disproportionate increase relative to state trends.
Arson cases were rare, with only one reported incident in 2014, accounting for 0.12% of the state's arson cases that year. This isolated incident translates to a rate of 0.60 per 1,000 residents for 2014. The absence of arson cases in other years indicates that it is not a persistent issue in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,067 per square mile in 2010 to 982 in 2019, property crimes increased. Additionally, there's a weak positive correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $33,317 in 2013 to $43,949 in 2019, property crimes also increased slightly.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to fluctuate between 1-3 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may remain steady at 2-3 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is projected to stay low, with 0-1 incidents annually. Arson is predicted to remain rare, with possibly one incident every 5-7 years.
In summary, La Plata has experienced a general increase in property crime rates over the past decade, despite a declining population. The most significant changes were observed in burglary rates, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft showed more modest increases. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics and economic indicators, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies to address the specific challenges faced by this small Missouri community.
