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Property Crime Trends in Byrnes Mill, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Byrnes Mill, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, decreasing overall from 51 incidents in 2011 to 10 in 2022, marking an 80.4% reduction. Concurrently, the population experienced modest growth, increasing from 6,975 in 2011 to 7,239 in 2022, a 3.8% rise.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2011, there were 12 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 3 in 2022, representing a 75% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 1.72 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 0.41 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.04% in 2011 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating an improvement in local burglary prevention relative to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents also experienced a significant decline. In 2011, 37 cases were reported, which dropped to 4 in 2022, an 89.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.30 in 2011 to 0.55 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.03% to 0.01% over this period, suggesting improved local prevention efforts compared to state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed more variability but ultimately decreased. From 2 incidents in 2011 to 3 in 2022, there was actually a 50% increase. However, when considering the rate per 1,000 residents, it remained relatively stable, moving from 0.29 in 2011 to 0.41 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.02% in 2011, dropping to 0.01% in 2016, and returning to 0.01% in 2022.
Arson cases in the city have been rare but consistent when they occur. There was 1 case reported in 2011, none for several years, and then 1 case again in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained low, at 0.14 in both 2011 and 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.11% in 2011 to 0.16% in 2022, despite the consistent number of incidents, possibly indicating a decrease in arson cases statewide.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $63,460 in 2013 to $65,875 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 39 to 10. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 81% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible link between homeownership and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (seven years from 2022, representing five years from now), property crime rates could continue to decrease. Burglaries might stabilize around 1-2 cases per year, larceny-theft could potentially drop to 2-3 incidents annually, and motor vehicle theft might fluctuate between 1-3 cases. Arson is likely to remain rare, with 0-1 cases per year.
In conclusion, Byrnes Mill has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions across most categories. The trends suggest a correlation between rising income levels, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates. If these trends continue, the city could see further reductions in property crime, potentially positioning it as a model for small-city crime prevention strategies.
