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Property Crime Trends in Kingsport, Tennessee: A Decade of Change Amidst Industrial Heritage
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kingsport, located in Tennessee, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 20.7%, from 2,864 to 2,271 incidents. This decline occurred alongside a modest population growth of 0.9%, from 73,421 to 74,108 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 509 burglaries, which decreased to 255 by 2022, representing a 49.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.93 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.44 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 1.18% in 2010 to 1.9% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, the reduction may be even more pronounced at the state level.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a decline. In 2010, there were 2,257 larceny thefts, which decreased to 1,706 by 2022, a 24.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 30.74 in 2010 to 23.02 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 1.93% to 2.25% over this period, indicating that the city's larceny theft reduction may not be as substantial as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft, contrary to other property crimes, showed an increase. In 2010, there were 98 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 310 by 2022, a substantial 216.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.33 in 2010 to 4.18 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also grew from 0.93% to 1.74%, suggesting a local trend that outpaces the state average.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated but showed a slight decrease overall. In 2010, there were 15 arsons, which reduced to 11 by 2022, a 26.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell slightly from 0.20 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arsons increased from 1.98% to 2.06%, indicating that the reduction in arsons may be less pronounced than the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $46,542 in 2013 to $49,841 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 2,657 to 2,271. The racial distribution remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently around 92% from 2013 to 2022, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. By 2029 (five years from now), we project total property crimes could decrease to approximately 1,900-2,000 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, potentially reaching around 350-400 cases per year.
In summary, Kingsport has seen an overall decrease in property crimes, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts, despite a slight population increase. The rise in motor vehicle thefts and the city's increasing share of state crime percentages in various categories suggest areas for focused crime prevention efforts. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates indicates that economic factors may play a role in crime reduction strategies for the city.
