Motor vehicle theft in the area has shown an inconsistent pattern. From no reported cases in 2010, it peaked at 4 incidents in 2020 before settling at 2 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2010 to 0.81 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, suggesting a slight increase in vulnerability to this crime type relative to the state.

Arson incidents have been rare, with only sporadic occurrences. The city reported 2 cases in 2010 and 1 in 2013, but none in subsequent years. This translates to a rate that dropped from 0.99 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0 from 2014 onward. The share of state arson cases was notably high at 0.26% in 2010 and 0.14% in 2013, but has since remained at 0%, indicating effective arson prevention or reporting changes.

Examining correlations, a notable relationship emerges between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 971 per square mile in 2010 to 1,192 in 2022, property crime rates per 1,000 residents decreased from 19.33 to 8.88. This inverse relationship suggests that increased urbanization may have contributed to enhanced community surveillance or improved law enforcement coverage.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on historical patterns, burglary and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, potentially reaching rates of 0.3 and 6.5 per 1,000 residents, respectively. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize around 0.8 per 1,000 residents, while arson is predicted to remain at or near zero incidents annually.

In summary, Cowan has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The most significant discovery is the city's ability to decrease crime rates while experiencing population growth, suggesting effective crime prevention strategies and community engagement. This trend, if continued, positions the city favorably for future public safety and quality of life improvements.