Motor vehicle theft exhibited volatile patterns. From 1 incident in 2011, it reached a high of 11 in 2020, before decreasing to 2 in 2022, representing a 100% increase overall. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.37 in 2011 to 0.65 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% to 0.02%, showing a modest growth in its share of this crime category.

Arson cases were rare and sporadic in the city. Only two incidents were reported over the entire period – one in 2015 and another in 2017. This infrequency makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends or rates for arson.

Examining correlations, a strong relationship appears between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,132 people per square mile in 2011 to 1,296 in 2022, property crimes rose correspondingly. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. For instance, when the median income dropped from $70,117 in 2019 to $46,449 in 2021, property crimes increased from 25 to 36 incidents.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, the city may experience approximately 45-50 property crime incidents annually, assuming current trends continue.

In conclusion, Kiefer has seen a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny theft. This growth has outpaced population increases, suggesting a rising crime rate per capita. The correlation with population density and inverse relationship with median income highlight the complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and crime rates. As the city continues to grow, addressing these trends will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.