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Violent Crime Trends in Noble, Oklahoma: A Study of Stability Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Noble, Oklahoma, a small but growing community, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, peaking at 17 incidents in 2019 and decreasing to 9 incidents by 2022, representing a 0% change over the 12-year period. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 7,231 in 2010 to 8,169 in 2022, an increase of 12.97%.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with only one recorded incident in 2016. This single occurrence resulted in a murder rate of 0.13 per 1,000 people for that year and represented 0.5% of the state's murders. In all other years, the murder rate was zero, indicating that homicide is an extremely rare event in this community. The consistency of these low numbers suggests a generally safe environment with regard to lethal violence.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, ranging from a low of 1 case in 2013 and 2014 to a high of 6 cases in 2010 and 2015. The rape rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from 0.14 in 2014 to 0.83 in 2010. The percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city has generally decreased, from 0.5% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022. This downward trend in the city's contribution to state rape statistics, despite population growth, may indicate improving local conditions or more effective prevention measures.
Robbery trends show sporadic occurrences, with several years reporting zero incidents. The highest number of robberies was 3 in both 2013 and 2017, translating to rates of 0.41 and 0.40 per 1,000 people, respectively. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics peaked at 0.1% in these years. The inconsistent pattern and generally low numbers suggest that robbery is not a persistent problem in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 2 in 2010 to a high of 13 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 0.28 in 2010 to 1.63 in 2019. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has generally increased, from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022. This upward trend, while still representing a small portion of state cases, may warrant attention from local law enforcement.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population growth and the number of aggravated assaults. As the population increased from 7,231 in 2010 to 8,169 in 2022, the number of aggravated assaults generally trended upward, despite some year-to-year fluctuations. This suggests that the growing population may be contributing to an increase in this type of violent crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we can anticipate a slight increase in overall violent crime numbers, primarily driven by the continued growth in aggravated assaults. The model suggests that by 2029, the city may experience approximately 12-15 violent crime incidents annually, with aggravated assaults potentially accounting for 9-11 of these cases.
In summary, Noble has maintained relatively low levels of violent crime over the past decade, especially concerning murder and robbery. However, the gradual increase in aggravated assaults, coupled with population growth, presents a challenge that local authorities may need to address. The city's contribution to state-level violent crime statistics remains small, but the upward trend in aggravated assaults warrants ongoing monitoring and preventive measures to ensure the continued safety and well-being of its growing population.
