Motor vehicle theft rates fluctuated but remained relatively stable over the period. In 2010, there were 113 incidents, which remained almost unchanged at 113 in 2022. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 2.81 to 2.75. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 1.14% to 1.73%, indicating that while local rates remained stable, they worsened relative to state trends. This could suggest that the city might benefit from enhanced vehicle security measures or targeted law enforcement efforts.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively rare and showed a decreasing trend. From 8 incidents in 2010 (0.20 per 1,000 residents), arson cases dropped to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases fell from 1.77% to 0%, indicating a significant improvement in this area relative to state trends. This positive development might be attributed to improved fire safety measures or more effective arson prevention and investigation techniques.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the Hispanic population increased from 43% in 2013 to 55% in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates, suggesting no direct correlation between ethnic composition and crime rates. However, the rise in median income from $75,480 in 2013 to $79,474 in 2022 coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall decreasing trend in burglaries and arsons. Larceny-theft rates are predicted to stabilize or slightly increase, while motor vehicle theft rates may see a modest uptick if current trends persist. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously as they don't account for potential policy changes or unforeseen economic shifts.

In conclusion, Kearny has shown resilience in managing property crime rates despite population growth. The significant reduction in burglaries and arsons, coupled with the stability in motor vehicle thefts, reflects positively on the community's safety initiatives. However, the increase in larceny-thefts presents an ongoing challenge. As the city continues to evolve demographically and economically, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies, particularly for larceny-theft, will be crucial in ensuring the continued safety and security of its residents.