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Property Crime Trends in Bergenfield: A Decade of Change Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bergenfield, located in New Jersey, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 16.8% from 107 to 89 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 6.3%, growing from 26,586 to 28,252 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 29 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 9 in 2022, representing a 69% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 1.09 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.32 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this substantial decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022. This suggests that while the local burglary rate improved significantly, it did not decline as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, has also seen a decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 76 reported incidents, which declined to 62 in 2022, an 18.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 2.86 in 2010 to 2.19 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2022, indicating that the local trend closely mirrored the state-wide pattern.
Motor vehicle theft presents a more complex picture. While the numbers remained low, there was a significant increase from 2 incidents in 2010 to 18 in 2022, a 800% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 0.08 to 0.64 over this period. More strikingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased dramatically from 0.02% to 0.27%, suggesting a local trend that diverged sharply from the state average.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only sporadic incidents reported. The data shows 1 case in 2010 and 2011, 5 cases in 2012, and 1 case in 2014. Since 2015, no arson cases have been reported, indicating a positive trend in this specific category of property crime.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in motor vehicle thefts appears to coincide with an increase in population density, which grew from 9,154 people per square mile in 2010 to 9,728 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the overall decrease in property crimes and the rise in median income, which increased from $104,442 in 2013 to $114,338 in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization of burglary and larceny theft rates at their current low levels. However, if recent trends continue, motor vehicle thefts may see a further increase, potentially reaching around 25-30 incidents annually by 2029. The overall property crime rate is projected to remain relatively stable, with potential fluctuations primarily driven by changes in motor vehicle theft rates.
In summary, Bergenfield has seen a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. The most significant challenge appears to be the recent uptick in motor vehicle thefts, which contrasts with the otherwise positive trends. These changes occurred against a backdrop of population growth and increasing median income, suggesting a complex interplay between demographic shifts and crime patterns in the city.
