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Property Crime Trends in Kahoka, Missouri: A Study of Fluctuations and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Kahoka, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 16 in 2010 and ending at 9 in 2018, representing a 43.75% decrease. During this same period, the population declined from 2,505 in 2010 to 2,187 in 2018, a 12.69% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries, dropping to zero in 2011 and 2012, before rising again to 5 in 2017, and then decreasing to 1 in 2018. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 2.79 in 2010 to 0.46 in 2018. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics varied, peaking at 0.02% in 2010 and 2017, indicating that while the absolute numbers are small, they can represent a noticeable portion of state burglaries in certain years.
Larceny-theft trends have been similarly variable. The number of incidents ranged from a high of 13 in 2012 to a low of 2 in 2015. The rate per 1,000 residents varied from 5.76 in 2012 to 0.93 in 2015. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively low, reaching a maximum of 0.01% in several years. This suggests that while larceny-theft is a persistent issue, its impact on state-wide statistics is minimal.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been infrequent, with the highest number of incidents (2) occurring in 2012. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.89 in 2012. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics has been negligible, never exceeding 0.01% of the state total. This indicates that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city compared to other property crimes.
Arson incidents have been rare, with only three years (2015, 2016, and 2010) reporting any cases. The highest number was 2 in 2016, resulting in a rate of 0.90 per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, despite the low absolute numbers, the city's contribution to state arson statistics was significant in these years, reaching 0.23% in 2016. This suggests that while arson is uncommon, when it does occur, it represents a notable portion of state incidents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $34,084 in 2013 to $45,245 in 2018, the total property crimes decreased from 8 to 9 over the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to lower property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Kahoka may continue to fluctuate but with a general downward trend. The total number of property crimes could potentially decrease to around 5-7 incidents per year, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue.
In summary, Kahoka has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, with an overall decreasing trend. While the absolute numbers are relatively low, the city's contribution to state statistics, particularly in burglary and arson, can be notable in certain years. The inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a role in further reducing property crime incidents in the future.
