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Property Crime Trends in Qulin, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Qulin, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 16 incidents in 2010 to 0 in 2021. This represents a 100% reduction in property crimes over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 1,518 in 2010 to 1,793 in 2021, an increase of approximately 18%.
Burglary trends in the city show a general decline over time. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries reported, which decreased to 0 by 2021. This represents a 100% reduction in burglary incidents. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.63 in 2010 to 0 in 2021. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained minimal, fluctuating between 0% and 0.01% of the state total throughout the period.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend. From 9 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 0 in 2021, marking a 100% decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.93 in 2010 to 0 in 2021. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases remained low, ranging from 0% to 0.02% over the years.
Motor vehicle theft showed more variability but ultimately decreased. There were 3 incidents in 2010, which dropped to 0 by 2021. This represents a 100% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.98 in 2010 to 0 in 2021. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics ranged from 0% to 0.02%, indicating a minimal impact on statewide figures.
Arson incidents were rare in the city, with only two reported cases in the entire period - one each in 2011 and 2012. This translates to a rate of 0.70 and 0.61 per 1,000 people in those respective years. Interestingly, despite the low numbers, these incidents represented 0.11% and 0.10% of state arson cases in 2011 and 2012, respectively, which is higher than the city's contribution to other property crime categories.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $27,730 in 2013 to $46,128 in 2021, total property crimes decreased from 5 to 0. However, this correlation is not perfect, as there were fluctuations in both income and crime rates during this period.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that the city will maintain low property crime rates over the next five years (up to 2029). The consistent decrease in all categories of property crime, coupled with the city's minimal contribution to state crime statistics, suggests that Qulin may continue to experience very low levels of property crime, potentially maintaining the zero incidents reported in 2021.
In summary, Qulin has demonstrated a significant improvement in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The consistent decrease in crime rates, despite population growth, suggests effective local crime prevention strategies or broader socioeconomic improvements. The city's minimal contribution to state crime statistics further underscores its success in maintaining public safety, positioning it as a potentially model community for crime reduction in Missouri.
