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Property Crime Trends in Jasper, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuation and Resilience
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Jasper, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, peaking at 36 in 2013 and reaching a low of 9 in 2018. Over this period, the city's population decreased by 9.4%, from 1,902 in 2010 to 1,723 in 2019, adding an interesting dynamic to the crime statistics.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. In 2013, burglaries spiked to 18 incidents, a dramatic increase from 5 in 2012. However, by 2019, this number had dropped to just 2 incidents. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 10.66 in 2013 and fell to 1.16 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.06% in 2013 before declining to 0.01% in 2019. This trend suggests an overall improvement in burglary prevention or reporting over time, despite population decreases.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated variability. The highest number of incidents (18) occurred in 2013, coinciding with the peak in burglaries. By 2019, larceny-thefts had decreased to 13 incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from a high of 10.66 in 2013 to a low of 3.53 in 2018, ending at 7.54 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.02% throughout the period. This suggests that while larceny-theft remained a concern, its prevalence relative to the state did not significantly change.
Motor vehicle theft in the city was relatively rare, with several years reporting zero incidents. The highest number recorded was 3 incidents in both 2010 and 2017. When incidents did occur, they represented between 0.01% and 0.02% of state totals. The sporadic nature of these crimes suggests they may be opportunistic rather than part of a consistent pattern.
Arson cases in the city were infrequent but notable. From 2013 to 2018, there was at least one arson incident per year, with a peak of 2 incidents in 2016. Despite the low numbers, these incidents represented a significant portion of state arsons, ranging from 0.12% to 0.23%. This indicates that while arson was rare, when it did occur, it had a disproportionate impact on state statistics given the city's size.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,716 per square mile in 2010 to 1,554 in 2019, overall property crime incidents also showed a general downward trend, despite some fluctuations. Additionally, the increase in median income from $41,158 in 2013 to $51,662 in 2019 coincided with a general decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between economic well-being and crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in the city may continue to decrease slightly. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are expected to stabilize at low levels, potentially averaging 2-3 and 10-12 incidents per year, respectively. Motor vehicle thefts may remain sporadic, with 0-1 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to be rare, possibly occurring once every two to three years.
In summary, Jasper has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes from 2010 to 2019, despite population fluctuations. The most significant improvements were seen in burglary rates, while larceny-theft remained the most common property crime. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remained relatively small but notable, especially in arson cases. These trends, coupled with improving economic indicators, suggest a positive trajectory for public safety in the community.
