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Property Crime Trends in Trenton, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Trenton, Missouri, a small Midwestern community, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 187 to 82, representing a 56.15% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population decrease from 6,456 in 2010 to 6,004 in 2022, a 7% reduction.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a downward trend, decreasing from 40 cases in 2010 to 9 in 2022, a 77.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.2 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.5 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.18% in 2019 before dropping to 0.07% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, the reduction outpaced the state average, indicating improved local security measures or changing criminal patterns specific to the area.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant decline. Cases dropped from 139 in 2010 to 60 in 2022, a 56.83% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 21.5 in 2010 to 10 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft cases decreased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, suggesting that the local reduction in larceny theft was slightly less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but ultimately increased slightly. In 2010, there were 8 cases, which rose to 13 in 2022, a 62.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.24 in 2010 to 2.17 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0.03% and 0.11% over the years, ending at 0.05% in 2022. This indicates that while motor vehicle theft increased locally, it remained a small fraction of the state's total.
Arson cases in the city were infrequent, with most years reporting either zero or one incident. The highest percentage of state arson cases was 0.15% in 2021, dropping to 0% in 2022. Given the low numbers, it's challenging to identify a clear trend, but the data suggests that arson is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.
A notable correlation exists between the overall decline in property crimes and the city's changing demographics. As the population density decreased from 1,001 per square mile in 2010 to 931 in 2022, property crimes also fell. Additionally, there's a potential link between rising median income, which increased from $39,018 in 2013 to $50,873 in 2022, and the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglary and larceny theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decline in property crimes. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to decrease further, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle theft may continue its slight upward trend unless targeted interventions are implemented. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic and low.
In summary, Trenton has experienced a significant reduction in overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. This positive trend coincides with demographic changes, including a slight population decrease and rising median incomes. While motor vehicle theft has seen a minor increase, it remains a small fraction of state totals. These trends suggest improving safety and security in the community, potentially linked to local economic improvements and changing population dynamics.
