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Property Crime Trends in Jacksonville, North Carolina: A Decade of Decline Near Camp Lejeune
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Jacksonville, North Carolina, a city known for its proximity to Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, has experienced notable shifts in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 26%, from 2,034 to 1,505. This decline occurred despite a population growth of approximately 0.4% during the same period, from 70,797 to 70,433 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2011, there were 515 burglaries, which decreased to 247 by 2022, representing a 52% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.27 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 3.51 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 0.96% in 2011 to 1.01% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Jacksonville, also saw a decline. The number of incidents dropped from 1,428 in 2011 to 1,194 in 2022, a 16.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 20.17 to 16.95 over the same period. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, moving from 1.04% in 2011 to 1.00% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvements in this category were in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed fluctuations but an overall decrease. In 2011, there were 91 incidents, which dropped to 64 in 2022, a 29.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.29 to 0.91. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased more significantly, from 0.94% to 0.44%, suggesting that Jacksonville made greater strides in reducing this type of crime compared to the state average.
Arson cases in Jacksonville remained relatively low but showed some variation. The number of incidents increased from 3 in 2011 to 5 in 2022, a 66.7% increase. However, due to the low numbers, this translates to a minimal change in the rate per 1,000 residents, from 0.04 to 0.07. The city's proportion of state arson cases increased from 0.33% to 0.57%, indicating that arson became a slightly more prominent issue in Jacksonville relative to the state.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $40,699 in 2013 to $50,930 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between property crime rates and population density, with both showing overall decreases from 2011 to 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trajectories, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show slight increases due to recent fluctuations. Arson cases are projected to remain low but may continue to show minor variations.
In summary, Jacksonville has made significant progress in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. These improvements have occurred despite population growth, suggesting effective law enforcement strategies and community initiatives. The city's performance relative to state averages varies by crime type, with notable success in reducing motor vehicle thefts. As Jacksonville continues to evolve, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies will be crucial to sustain and further improve these positive trends in property crime rates.
