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Property Crime Trends in Ivey, Georgia: Stability Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ivey, located in Georgia, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. With a population of 1,413 in 2022 and covering an area of 2.59 square miles, this small city has maintained a relatively stable property crime rate over the observed period. From 2017 to 2018, the total number of property crimes remained constant at 11 incidents per year, despite a population decrease from 2,011 to 1,863 during the same period.
The burglary rate in the city remained unchanged at 3 incidents per year from 2017 to 2018. When adjusted for population, this translates to approximately 1.49 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2017, increasing slightly to 1.61 per 1,000 in 2018 due to the population decrease. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary incidents rose from 0.01% in 2017 to 0.02% in 2018, indicating a marginal increase in its share of state burglaries despite no change in absolute numbers.
Larceny-theft incidents also remained steady at 8 cases per year from 2017 to 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 3.98 in 2017 to 4.29 in 2018, again due to the population decrease rather than an increase in incidents. The city's share of state-wide larceny-theft incidents held constant at 0.01% over this period, suggesting that the local trend aligned with state-wide patterns.
Interestingly, the data shows no reported motor vehicle thefts or arsons in either 2017 or 2018. This absence of incidents resulted in a 0% contribution to state-wide figures for both crime categories. The lack of these types of property crimes is noteworthy for a city of this size and could be indicative of effective local crime prevention strategies or unique community characteristics.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with the city's racial composition. As the percentage of white residents decreased from 81% in 2017 to 79% in 2018, there was a corresponding increase in the black population from 13% to 18%. This demographic shift coincided with the slight increase in per capita property crime rates, though the total number of incidents remained constant.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from the current year 2024), we can anticipate a potential slight increase in property crime rates if current demographic and economic trends continue. However, given the small sample size and limited timeframe of available data, these predictions should be interpreted with caution.
In summary, Ivey demonstrates a stable property crime environment with low rates of serious offenses like motor vehicle theft and arson. The slight increases in per capita rates for burglary and larceny-theft appear to be more related to population fluctuations than to an actual rise in criminal activity. The city's changing demographic composition may be a factor to monitor in future crime trend analyses, as it could potentially influence community dynamics and crime patterns.
